France, Le Monde
Mardi 27 mars 2007
Les libéraux québecois privés de majorité par un vote populiste
LE MONDE | 27.03.07 | 15h10 • Mis à jour le 27.03.07 | 15h10
MONTRÉAL CORRESPONDANCE
Le Parti libéral du Québec (PLQ), au pouvoir depuis 2003, a remporté de justesse les élections législatives, lundi 26 mars, mais ne pourra former qu'un gouvernement minoritaire - le premier depuis 130 ans dans cette province canadienne majoritairement francophone.
Le véritable vainqueur de la soirée est l'Action démocratique du Québec (ADQ) dirigée par son jeune chef de 37 ans, Mario Dumont, une formation populiste de droite qui bouleverse la donne politique, repoussant en troisième position les indépendantistes du Parti québécois (PQ).
Le vote a été extrêmement serré avec 43 % des voix pour le PLQ (48 sièges), 31 % pour l'ADQ (41) et 28 % pour le PQ (36), soit son plus mauvais score. Le premier ministre libéral sortant, Jean Charest, a admis que "les Québécois avaient rendu un jugement sévère" à l'endroit des libéraux et qu'ils "ont mis la classe politique au défi de faire preuve de maturité politique et de sens du devoir". "J'accepte ce défi", a-t-il ajouté.
Au cours d'une campagne marathon de 33 jours, le PLQ a eu bien du mal à défendre le bilan mitigé de ses quatre années de pouvoir. "Nous avons vécu, a dit M. Charest, sous le feu nourri de nos adversaires, alors que nous défendions un budget de redressement" peu populaire.
La vague " adéquiste" - pour ADQ - alimentée par campagne menée tambour battant par l'ex-libéral Mario Dumont, marque une montée du conservatisme dans la société québécoise, à l'image de celle qui a porté Stephan Harper au pouvoir à Ottawa en 2006. Avec 41 sièges contre cinq précédemment, ce "jeune" parti formera l'opposition officielle à Québec. Il peut se vanter d'avoir mis fin au bipartisme politique.
"C'est le début d'un temps nouveau", a souligné M. Dumont, estimant avoir "gagné la bataille des idées". L'ADQ vient, selon lui, de "franchir une étape historique" et a désormais "le devoir d'exercer la surveillance" des libéraux au pouvoir. Se présentant comme le "parti des gens du peuple", qui défend les "intérêts des familles, de la classe moyenne et des personnes âgées", il a fait une percée majeure dans les zones rurales et les banlieues de Montréal et de Québec.
"S'AFFIRMER SANS SE SÉPARER"
Pendant la campagne, M. Dumont a tenu un discours aux accents populistes et a préconisé une privatisation partielle du système de santé et une sérieuse cure d'amaigrissement de l'Etat. Entre libéraux fédéralistes et péquistes souverainistes, M. Dumont a également proposé de repenser la "question nationale", en suggérant une "voie autonomiste", invitant le Québec à "s'affirmer sans se séparer" du Canada. Cette voie, que certains analystes qualifient d'irréalisable, semble néanmoins avoir séduit une partie des électeurs, attirés par l'espoir d'en finir avec un débat entre fédéralistes et indépendantistes jugé de plus en plus stérile.
Pour le Parti québécois, cette élection est un coup dur manifeste. Non seulement celui-ci perd son statut d'opposant officiel, mais il voit aussi son message "souverainiste" repoussé aux calendes grecques, lui qui avait de nouveau promis la tenue d'un référendum sur l'avenir du Québec. Même s'il a affirmé vouloir mener une "opposition solide et constructive", le chef du PQ, André Boisclair, a invité ses partisans à "garder leurs rêves bien en vie".
Anne Pélouas
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États-Unis, New York Times
Quebec Liberals Are Re-elected, Avoiding Another Secession Vote
QUEBEC, March 26 — The federalist Liberal Party was re-elected as a slim minority government in provincial elections here Monday. The outcome means Quebec will avoid another divisive referendum on whether the French-speaking province should separate from the rest of Canada.
With more than two-thirds of the ballots counted, the Liberals stood to take 48 seats in the 125-seat provincial assembly. The Action Démocratique du Québec, a dark-horse catering largely to those who have grown tired of the independence movement that has dominated politics here since the 1960s, was slated to take 41 seats. The separatist Parti Québécois stood in third place with 36 seats.
The strong performance by the the Action Démocratique du Québec stunned many observers. The party’s leader, Mario Dumont, had himself said he hoped to win 15 seats, triple the five seats his party had in the provincial assembly before the election.
“Mr. Dumont has strong credibility among nationalists but at the same time he is popular with voters who want to get away from the polarizing debate on federalism versus sovereignty,” said Christian Dufour, a political scientist at the École Nationale d’Administration Publique. “That debate is tiring for many Quebecers.”
The third-place showing by the Parti Québécois will lead to much debate over the future of the movement to gain independence for the province. But many separatists are withholding their support for the party with the belief that sovereignty cannot be achieved with André Boisclair at the helm, said Mr. Dufour and several other political analysts.
Polls leading up to the vote showed the three parties were in a dead heat. Most showed the Liberal Party with a razor-thin lead.
Mr. Dumont, 36, said while voting on Monday that he hoped that the election “will be a turning point for Quebec society.”
“Rarely in recent electoral history have people had the feeling that their vote could be so important and make such a difference,” he added.
Mr. Charest, who swept the Parti Québécois from power by winning a majority government in 2003, was unpopular during much of his mandate for failing to deliver promised tax cuts and for a lack of improvement in waiting times for hospital beds.
But he called an election last month after his standing in the polls improved and after Mr. Boisclair’s predecessor as party leader criticized him for not being aggressive enough in seeking independence for Quebec. Mr. Boisclair pledged that he would hold a vote on independence if elected, but avoided using the word “referendum,” preferring to say instead “popular consultation.”
The Parti Québécois held referendums on separation in 1980 and 1995. The first vote resulted in a loss by 20 percentage points, but the most recent referendum was lost by a razor-thin margin and destabilized the Quebec economy.
Mr. Charest’s reputation as champion of the federalist cause during the 1995 referendum on independence earned him the nickname Captain Canada. He left federal politics soon after to lead Quebec’s Liberal Party with the support of the province’s business elite who sought a strong federalist leader to stabilize the province’s political landscape.
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Israël, Jerusalem Post
Mar. 27, 2007 23:54 | Updated Mar. 27, 2007 23:58
Separatists suffer blow in Quebec
By YANIV SALAMA-SCHEER
The separatist Parti Quebecois saw their power base shrink significantly in this week's provincial election.
The Liberal Party headed by Premier Jean Charest won a second consecutive mandate in Monday's vote, while Mario Dumont's conservative Action Democratique beat the Parti Quebecois (PQ) in the battle for second place, leaving the separatist party in third place for the first time in its history.
Charest won a minority mandate, the only time that has happened in Quebec since 1878. He is the party's first leader to fail to win successive majority governments in 40 years.
"Today Quebecers delivered a judgment, a severe one, and the Liberal party and I will have to learn lessons from it," Charest said.
The election results showed a surprising drop is support for PQ leader Andre Boisclair, who is a strong advocate of separation from Canada. The relegation of the party to third place in Quebec's National Assembly suggests an end, for the foreseeable future, to calls for another referendum on separation.
"Our party will work with all the parties in the National Assembly to give Quebecers a stable government that will defend Quebec's interests," Charest said.
Just over 5.6 million people were eligible to vote for the 125 seats in the Assembly. The Liberals took 48, while the dark horse Action Democratique took 41, after winning only four in the 2003 election. The PQ won only 36 seats.
Boisclair acknowledged that democracy has spoken, but insisted the dream of separation was not dead, saying "Our movement is well-anchored in the Quebec population. We are millions of Quebecers who want to make our people a country."
The stunning rise of Mario Dumont's Action Democratique was the story of the night as the party was poised to become the official opposition. Dumont, who had hoped for 15 seats, was shocked by the results.
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Et cet autre article assez débile, plutôt sur le côté économique. Le dollar canadien qui chutait à cause des sondages favorisant le PQ. Est-ce que ces deux entités sont vraiment corrélées ensemble ? Je pense pas.
Bloomberg
Canada's Dollar Falls as Polls Show Separatists Gaining Support
By Haris Anwar
March 26 (Bloomberg) -- Canada's dollar fell for a third straight day as voters cast ballots in Quebec provincial elections, which polls suggest may produce a separatist-led minority government.
The polls indicated Quebec Premier Jean Charest has lost support. The nation's second-largest province hasn't had a minority government in more than a century.
``Investors are taking the risk off the table before the Quebec election results,'' said Jack Spitz, director of foreign exchange trading at National Bank of Canada in Toronto. ``But that seems short-lived. Once this event is out of the way, I see the Canadian dollar rallying because there are many currency- friendly news out there.''
Canada's dollar fell to 86.08 U.S. cents at 4:15 p.m. in Toronto, from 86.15 on March 23. One U.S. dollar buys C$1.1617. The currency lost against the 15 out of 16 major currencies tracked by Bloomberg today, outperforming only the South African rand.
Last week, the Canadian dollar climbed 1.3 percent after a report showed inflation in Canada accelerated in February, lessening the chances of a lending rate cut, while the U.S. Federal Reserve abandoned its tilt toward higher borrowing costs.
Traders said the currency may suffer if separatist parties gain the control of Quebec, a province where referendums have twice rejected splitting from Canada, most recently in 1995.
The campaign of the Liberal Party's Charest, who called the election about a month ago with his popularity rising, has stumbled, losing ground to Andre Boisclair of the separatist Parti Quebecois and Mario Dumont of the Action Democratique.
Poll Results
A Strategic Counsel poll for the Toronto Globe and Mail and CTV showed Boisclair in front at 31 percent, followed by Charest at 30 percent and Dumont at 28 percent. The survey of 1,000 people conducted March 14-15 had a margin of error of 3.1 percentage points, meaning the race is a statistical dead heat. A Leger poll published March 24 in the Montreal Gazette showed similar results.
The 40-year-old Boisclair has promised a third referendum on secession if he wins control. Many separatists want to break away from Canada to preserve their French language and culture.
The election overshadowed crude oil, with the contract for May delivery rising 66 cents, or 1.1 percent, to $62.94 a barrel at the close of floor trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Also, Xstrata Plc, the world's fifth-largest mining company, agreed to buy Canada's LionOre Mining International Ltd. for $4 billion.
Higher commodities prices, which account for 54 percent of the nation's exports, have attracted foreign buyers to acquire Canada's mining companies. Mergers and acquisitions have increased demand for the currency.
`Very Positive' News
``The fundamental news is very positive out of Canada,'' said Shaun Osborne, chief currency strategist in Toronto at TD Securities Inc. ``We've got commodities trading quite strongly. Any notion of the Bank of Canada's rate cut in the near-term is out of the cards.''
Canadian government bonds rose after a U.S. government report showed sales of new homes decreased last month. Sales declined 3.9 percent, after falling a revised 15.8 percent in January, according to data released by the Commerce Department in Washington. The median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg was for a 5.4 percent boost in sales.
U.S. Slowdown
A slowing U.S. economy reduces demand for Canadian lumber and base metals. The U.S. consumes more 80 percent of Canada's exports.
Futures investors last week increased bets that the Bank of Canada will not cut the benchmark lending rates this year. The yield on December's futures contract was at 4.23 percent, indicating little change from the central bank's 4.25 percent rate.
The yield on Canada's benchmark 10-year bond fell less than 1 basis points, or 0.01 percentage point, to 4.10 percent. The price of the 4 percent security maturing June 2016 rose 4 cents to C$99.21. Bond prices move inversely to yields.
The bond yields 48 basis points less than the comparable- maturity U.S. 10-year Treasury note. The yield premium, or spread, narrowed to about 45 basis points last week, the lowest since March 2006.
To contact the reporter on this story: Haris Anwar in Toronto at hanwar2@bloomberg.net .
Last Updated: March 26, 2007 16:16 EDT
