Trade tensions between the United States and China are heading toward "crisis" levels, a new forecast warns.
"The U.S. administration is clearly wary of picking a fight with China given the latter's strategic and political significance, which is presumably why the U.S. has shied away from designating China as a currency manipulator for so long," Julian Jessor, the chief international economist at Capital Economics, said in a report today.
"But four factors suggest that trade tensions will continue to build to crisis levels, with 2012 likely to be the crunch year."
Tensions between the U.S. and China have been running high as Washington presses Beijing to allow its currency to rise.
His four factors:
The U.S. recovery will be disappointing, with jobless rates still close to 10 per cent and the economy heading towards deflation.
Protectionism will soon be the only tool open to policy makers, given there's little hope of further fiscal measures and the Federal Reserves new quantitative easing program will have run its course by mid-2011.
China's trade surplus wiith the U.S., which continues to build, makes an "easy target."
Politics in both countries hit a turning point in 2012. "The presidential election campaign in the U.S. is likely to be dominated by demands for action against China, but Chinese policy-making will be paralyzed ahead of the leadership change starting that year in Beijing." G&M
C'est asser évident. Les Américains, et nous aussi d'ailleurs devront mettre les freins au importations de la Chine et de d'autres pays asiatiques. On ne peut continuer a exporter nos emplois sans baisser notre niveau de vie. Un jour ou l'autre nous devront faire payer le coût de nos chômeurs sur les produits importés.
Une taxe de 20%, 30% voir 50% dont les fonds seront destinés au régime d'assurance emplois. Le double effet sera qu'il donnera une chance a nos fabricants locaux de faire des produits et d'offrir des emplois en plus de réduire les coûts de l'état.
La Chine devra dévélopper son propre marché intérieur et ne pourra continuer de domper toute sa productivité sur l'enssemble de la planète. C'est une formule insoutenable.
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